As 2019 election draws closer by the day, an Independent election Observer, Dr. Amadi Matthew Chima gives a thorough analysis of what happened in the 2015 election with a view of enlightening the electorates for the upcoming election.
Dr. Amadi who has been in the business of election monitoring in the country for over 20 years in a detailed tweet via his tweeter handle shared the analysis below;
By the end of voting in the presidential elections on March 28, 2015, it was obvious to experts on elections that something unprecedented was about to happen. Our observers were reporting numbers that were unbelievable.
The Figures of the election were as follows:
Total Registered voters: 67,422,005
Total accreditation:31,746,490
Total votes cast: 29,432,083
Total Valid votes: 28,587,564
Total rejected votes: 844,519
Total polling units 98,489
Full Biometric Authentication:10,266,139
Card only Authentication: 13,377,340
%success Full Biometric:43
%failed card only Biometric:57
Looking closely at these numbers, I will begin to analyze them with more numbers. You shall see how GEJ lost, why PMB won, and how the South East made Buhari President by default.
You will also see what went wrong with the elections under Jega and what Prof Mahmood has done about it.The essence of this full disclosure is to foreground my insistence that elections are getting better under Mahmood and that 2019 will be very credible from the side of the EMB.
By the end of the elections,the APC’s candidate won with the following votes:
Buhari APC ————15,424,921
Jonathan PDP————12,853,162
The margin of lead was —2,571,759
If you take a closer scrutiny at the numbers, the first thing to jump at you is the fact that there is a huge difference in the total number of votes cast and the total number of full and partial accreditation.
For emphasis:
Total votes cast=29,432,083
Total full &partial =23,643,479
The result is: 5,788,604
If you remove invalid votes from the number, you get 4,944,085.
The significance of this number is that almost 5m persons participated in the elections without going through full or partial Biometric accreditation.
They were captured using incidence forms.
Why is this important?The reality of the 2015 election was that it pitched sections of the country against each other. So,while the South East and South South Voted overwhelmingly for the PDP,the North East & North West stuck with the APC.The N/Central & S/West were not as defining as these places.
Let us take a look at 4 states of Kano,Katsina,Rivers, & Akwa Ibom, states that usually churn out huge numbers before the arrival of technology.
In Kano, although there were 4,993,471 accredited voters in the state, a total number of 4,426,661 PVCs were distributed. On Election Day, 2,364,434 voters were accredited.
However, out of this number, only 288,644 had FULL Biometric Accreditation(FBA).
FBA means that, they were present, the card reader identified their PVCs as genuine, then a “handshake” between the card reader and voter and PVC is consummated with the finger print of the person, meaning that there is not a shred of doubt that the individual is the owner of the card and is eligible to vote.
On same day, in Kano, 1,358,537 voters were accredited partially(PBA). Meaning that only their PVCs was authenticated, their finger prints could not be read. This brings the total of FBA and PBA to 1,647,181.
Therefore, a whopping 717,253 voters were allowed to vote without FBA or PBA. These persons were captured with incidence forms. These are part of that 5m.
Let’s go to Katsina:
Total registered 2,842,678
PVC collected 2,656,466
Total accredited 1,578,646
FBA 398,843
PBA 1,045,994
FBA +PBA=1,44,837
133,809 voters were captured with incidence forms.
Rivers State:
Registered voters 2,538,535
PVC distribution 1,468,020
Total accredited 1,643,409
FBA 152,975
PBA 158,844
FBA+PBA=311,819
1,331,590 persons voted in Rivers state without accreditation but with incidence forms. These were part of the 5m.
Akwa Ibom:
Registered voters 1,717,766
PVCs distribution 1,596,471
Total accredited 1,074,070
FBA 234,141
PBA 288,755
PBA + FBA=522,896
A total of 1,194,870 persons voted in Akwa Ibom with incidence forms. Part of the 5m.
This was the case in every state. Mostly from the South. So, the notion in many places, particularly from the South that votes were pumped up in the North may just not be the total picture. The manifestations were more in the South than it was in the North.
Consider this, if Kano had unleashed its registered voters population on Election Day, there would have been over 4m voters ready to thumb print with no one to stop them. So, why did Buhari still win even with such high number of non-Biometric accreditation in the South?
The answer is simple: The South East refused to turn up for GEJ. They handed victory to PMB. Let’s carry out a summary analysis of the five states in the South East but we shall highlight Abia as a metaphor of the widespread apathy in the South East on Election Day.
Abia
Reg voters 1,396,166
PVCs collected 1,192,268,
Total accredited 442,538
FBA 218,599
PBA 102,401
FBA+PBA= 320000
Incident forms =122,538
The total voting capacity of the South East ,using only those that collected PVCs as reference as at 2015 was 6,692,752. How many came out to vote? 3,060,093.Only 46% of voters in the S/East turned out to vote.The number from GEJ’s home state of Bayelsa was even more ridiculous.
Out of the 605, 637 Registered voters, only 384,789 came out to support their son.
I have deliberately refrained from using registered voters most of this analysis because I am aware of the shenanigans of politicians during registration.
