The World Bank has forecasted that poverty levels in Nigeria will increase by 3.6 percentage points over the next five years, continuing through 2027.
This projection is detailed in the Bank’s Africa’s Pulse report, which was released during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, DC.
The report presents a concerning outlook for poverty reduction in Nigeria, noting that, despite some recent improvements in economic activity—particularly in the non-oil sector during the last quarter of 2024—structural challenges associated with resource dependence and national fragility are likely to impede progress.
According to the World Bank, Nigeria, along with other resource-rich and fragile nations in Sub-Saharan Africa, is set to face a deteriorating poverty situation—unlike non-resource-rich countries, which are anticipated to achieve faster poverty reduction.
“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report indicates.
The report emphasises that Sub-Saharan Africa continues to bear the highest extreme poverty rate globally, with a disproportionate concentration of the impoverished: in 2024, 80% of the world’s 695 million extreme poor resided in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Within this region, half of the 560 million extreme poor are found in just four countries.
In contrast, South Asia accounts for 8%, East Asia and the Pacific for 2%, the Middle East and North Africa for 5%, and Latin America and the Caribbean for 3%.
Resource-rich countries are predicted to lag in poverty reduction due to declining oil prices and fragile fiscal structures. Conversely, non-resource-rich nations are benefiting from elevated agricultural commodity prices, which are driving stronger growth despite fiscal challenges.
The report further states: “This follows a well-established pattern whereby resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates—averaging 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries.”
In light of these forecasts, the World Bank advises that Nigeria and similar economies should focus on enhancing fiscal management and establishing a more robust fiscal contract with citizens to foster inclusive economic development and long-term poverty reduction.
