Former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has predicted that the 2027 presidential election will likely go into a runoff, insisting that President Bola Tinubu would not make it to the second round.
Speaking on Sunday Politics, a Channels Television programme, El-Rufai said there are strong chances that the election would not be concluded on the first ballot.
“I was governor of Kaduna state; I was one of Bola Tinubu’s biggest campaigners, but I couldn’t deliver the state to him,” he said.
“If you want to engage in self-delusion, you are free to do so. I will not tell you how we are going to win, but I tell you very clearly — the worst-case scenario in the 2027 elections is that no winner will emerge in the first round.”
He stated that the electorates “may have to go for a runoff, and Bola Tinubu will not be on the ballot for the runoff, because he will, at best, be third in the election.”
Speaking further, he noted that Tinubu “has no pathway to win. I have done the maths, I have done the analysis; he cannot — he will, at best, be third.”
El-Rufai dismissed assumptions that Tinubu could secure victory by relying on state power and resources.
“But he can deceive himself; he may think, oh, you know, I have money, because they have taken all the money in the country, I have INEC, I have the police, I have the army. You know what, President Tinubu, invite ex-President Goodluck Jonathan for a chat, and ask him if he didn’t have all this in 2015, and we got him out. Is the case still the same? Similar to 2015? It’s worse.”
He further argued that Tinubu’s political strength had been overstated.
“It’s like those who say Tinubu has never lost an election. That can be contested, but it’s okay. He’s a political strategist, he’s this, he’s that. Wait.
“I naturally have said, if you want to learn some lessons, invite ex-President Goodluck Jonathan for a chat over coffee, and ask him what happened in 2015. That’s all,” he said.
El-Rufai, now a member of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and a former ally of Tinubu, has emerged as a staunch critic of the current administration. He has continued to position himself among those working to unseat the president in 2027.
