By Michael Owhoko, Ph.D
Worried and moved by the unending terrorism in Nigeria, I was recently compelled to investigate the menace, using my crystal ball. From the revelation, some high-ranking individuals are fueling the widespread terrorism-induced bloodbath through betrayal and tacit support. And except there is a unified response driven by sincerity, patriotism and unbiasedness, devoid of religious and ethnic prejudices, Nigeria will be brought to its knees by terrorist’s groups with jihadist agenda.
I am not a clairvoyant, but I have a crystal ball which I occasionally consult when I am eager to forecast the future. I have never doubted the accuracy of my crystal ball due to outcome of previous results. This forms the basis of my concern and fear for Nigeria, a country that had once showed great promises, could become a victim of traitors and systems contradictions.
In my crystal ball, I see terrorism draped in jihadism with ultimate goal to establish Islamic Caliphate in Nigeria. There is a covert design aimed at spreading Islamic authority and influence across the country, and what is playing out is a script to deliver this plan. Current outlook for control of economic and political power is accidental, and not the underlining motive. It is a carefully guided intent by the traitors.
This underscores the reason for the underground conspiracy by some powerful Islamic extremists to weaken capacity of government to fight terrorism, implicitly, exposing the country to complex risks with streaming effect of sliding into an Afghanistan’s experience. Afghanistan is currently ruled by the Talibans, reputed for terrorism and human rights violations. Though a long-term plan, the goal is aimed at making Nigeria an Islamic country, using Sharia law as driver.
Unarguably, the introduction of Sharia law in 12 northern states of Zamfara, Sokoto, Kano, Bauchi, Katsina, Jigawa, Borno, Kaduna, Yobe, Gombe and Niger, has encouraged Islamic extremism, and provided the framework for promotion of jihadism in Nigeria. Islamic extremists, particularly those of Fulani extraction, believe Sharia law should be extended to other parts of the country through Jihad, even though it undermines Nigeria’s secular status. This ambition emboldens Fulani Islamic extremists and other terrorist groups to move into communities to maim, kill, dislodge and dispossess inhabitants of their ancestral homes and lands. Until Sharia law is abolished, Islamic terrorism in Nigeria will not abate.
Trailer load of Fulani youths together with some persons suspected to be from the Sahel, being transported and dropped off in large numbers in bushes of various communities across the country, particularly in the southern part of Nigeria, is part of the overall plot. These youths with no visible education and skills, carry out various crimes from their hidden locations, including kidnapping and rape, and most times, forcefully converting their victims to Islam.
In my crystal ball, I see some notable traditional rulers, Islamic clerics, politicians, business men and influential personalities from the north as benefactors, providing support for jihadist agenda in a coded fashion. The Nigerian Army is also not immune to insider traitors who secretly volunteer classified information to advance Sharia scheme.
As a ploy to gather sympathy, I see some of these sponsors and sympathisers appealing to sentiments by downplaying the gravity of crime of these terrorist groups, and portraying them as bandits and insurgents fighting for religious obligations. This position is expected to be canvassed and sustained in various social media platforms in the time ahead. A few of these collaborators are also secretly working with some external groups with leanings to Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). It is ISIS’ agenda to push its ideology and influence across some key African countries, including Nigeria.
Besides, I see the conspirators not giving up in their attempts to frustrate government’s efforts at defeating terrorism. Targeting and killing of Christians, and some Muslims who hold contrary view of Islam, is part of grand design to blackmail government into submission, and expand Islamic hegemony in Nigeria. It is also their plans to leverage strategic alliance with some Sahel groups to attain mutual goals.
Notwithstanding the recent United States’ bombing of terrorists’ cells in Sokoto State, I see terrorists’ organisations expanding their bases and networks beyond current operational holds in the north, and making incursion into the southern parts of the country. I also see emergence of new splinter groups from Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), while Ansaru, Fulani Islamic extremists, Mahmuda and Lakurawa, will remain united with common agenda for territorial expansion.
Major manifestations in my crystal ball are reminiscent of the events that happened during the administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan. While in power, Jonathan had said that Boko Haram members and sympathizers were in almost every level of his government. In an interview with the Voice of America (VOA) in 2015, he further disclosed that Boko Haram had links with international extremist groups like ISIS in the Middle East where they were undergoing training.
When President Jonathan made these remark, Nigerians glossed over it, believing that, as President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria, he had the powers to deal with the terrorist groups. Unfortunately, his government was encumbered by entrenched Islamic interests, resulting largely to failure to conquer the Islamic extremists.
Since it was within Jonathan’s constitutional responsibility to protect lives and properties, why did he not move proactively and swiftly in identifying and encircling the Boko Haram elements in his government? Evidently, Jonathan was overwhelmed by the domineering influence of Islamic stalwarts, both in and outside his government.
The former President failed to exercise the will and political courage to confront the monsters, owing to offence-aversion to avoid likely blackmail and sabotage by some powerful northerners. This encouraged Boko Haram’s influence to fester in his government. Unfortunately, he learned in a hard way, following the kidnap of Chibok girls, which was obviously orchestrated to humiliate and bring down his government.
With the Chibok experience and the on-going terrorism attacks in the country, I have often wondered why government, with all its contraptions, including intelligence network and security formations, would allow these Islamic moles in government, despite implications on Nigeria’s sovereignty?
With my knowledge of Political Science, I know for a fact that government is the supreme entity with overall authority over the people, with primary purpose to provide security and welfare. In absolute terms, there is nothing a government in power cannot do, except to literally turn a man to a woman, and vice versa. So, why the waiver of some persons from the weight of the law, making government to look like institutional weakling? In the absence of compromise, government has the capacity to identify and track activities of terrorists.
Late General Sanni Abacha might not have become Head of State through democratic means, but he understood the risk posed by saboteurs in and outside government. To achieve stability, he identified and punished persons considered as threat to government, irrespective of status. Abacha believed that once insurrection had lasted more than 72 hours, there was insider’s collaboration fueled by political motive.
For government, there should be no sacred cows and individuals with blue blood, as the law is sacrosanct. Government’s current seeming fatigue to contain and deal with these Islamic fundamentalists, is rooted in overwhelming influence enjoyed by radical Islamic adherents in government. They should be fished out.
For too long, government has exhibited cowardice in the face of growing crimes against Nigerians by a few entrenched Islamic extremists. Seeking external help to save lives and properties, is not a sign of weakness, but diplomatic courage. The recent intelligence cooperation between the Federal Government and the United States, resulting in airstrikes of terrorists in the North-West region is commendable. The government must leverage all available external opportunities to defeat this jihadist scheme.
Nigeria is a secular state and a plural society with over 250 ethnic groups. There must be freedom of religion devoid of discrimination, just as no one ethnic group has the authority to encroach into other peoples’ ancestral land and violently take possession. This must stop. Therefore, President Ahmed Bola Tinubu must demonstrate courage to identify and deal with the sympathisers, financiers and sponsors of these Islamic terror groups, otherwise, he risks facing the Jonathan’s fate, and possibly, dismemberment of Nigeria.
Dr. Mike Owhoko, Lagos-based public policy analyst, author, and journalist, can be reached at www.mikeowhoko.com, and followed on X {formerly Twitter} @michaelowhoko.
