BY ZUHUMNAN DAPEL
Tinubu is not merely facing headwinds—he is staring down a political hurricane that could sweep him out of power in 2027. The foundations of his coalition are cracking, and the political terrain is shifting violently beneath his feet as the warning lights are no longer blinking—they’re blazing.
The north is abandoning him. His 2023 northern numbers will not repeat themselves. The region’s most formidable political titans—Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Nasir el‑Rufai, and Aminu Tambuwal—are now aligned squarely against him. These are not fringe actors; they are the custodians of northern political machinery. Together, they can strip Tinubu of more than 70% of the north-west and north-east vote. That is not a setback—it is a political decapitation.
An Obi-led ADC ticket would erase him from the south-east map. If Peter Obi clinches the ADC nomination, Tinubu’s south-east prospects collapse instantly. All five states would swing decisively to Obi. Not partially. Not competitively. Completely. Tinubu would be locked out of an entire geopolitical zone with no path to clawing back influence.
Strategic defections could detonate his national spread. If the governors of Bauchi and Oyo defect to ADC, the message is unmistakable: Tinubu’s coalition is bleeding from the inside. These are not symbolic defections—they are structural ruptures that undermine his claim to national reach and weaken his legitimacy narrative.
Even if Tinubu makes progress in the north-central and south-west, it remains insufficient. Nigeria’s presidency is not won by clinging to two regions while haemorrhaging support across the rest of the federation. The electoral arithmetic is brutal, and it is turning against him.
Nigeria’s political architecture is undergoing a seismic realignment.
The old north/south-west alliance that once sidelined the south-east is breaking down. In its place, a new and unprecedented arrangement might be forming: a possible Igbo–Hausa convergence. If that alliance takes shape, it could sideline the Yoruba political bloc and leave Tinubu dangerously isolated.
There is only one scenario that could disrupt this trajectory. If the ADC denies Peter Obi a ticket, the south-east dynamic shifts. Faced with alternatives they distrust even more, many Igbo voters may reluctantly tilt toward Tinubu rather than Atiku or Rotimi Amaechi. But that lifeline depends entirely on ADC’s internal decision—and nothing in the current political climate guarantees it.
Many political observers continue to view Tinubu as a highly skilled political player with a long record of strategic manoeuvring. In their assessment, he is unlikely to relinquish power easily, and they argue that—unlike former President Jonathan—he possesses the tactical resilience to withstand significant political pressure. This perspective frames Tinubu as a “student of power,” someone who anticipates threats and adapts quickly.
A useful analogy comes from Mikel John Obi’s comments about Lionel Messi. Mikel explained that when his team faced Cristiano Ronaldo, the coach typically assigned one player to contain him. But when facing Messi, the coach deployed two or three players because the threat was different: the potential damage was greater, and the response had to match that reality.
Applied to Nigeria’s political landscape, this analogy suggests that those seeking to challenge Tinubu are unlikely to rely on simplistic or predictable strategies. They understand his political history, his methods, and his capacity to counter conventional moves. In other words, they would not approach him the way Jonathan’s opponents approached Jonathan. They would calibrate their tactics to the level of resistance they expect.
A Radical Proposal for Free and Fair Elections: Decentralising Nigeria’s Electoral System.
Nigeria’s democratic journey has been marred by a persistent crisis of credibility. Out of ten general elections since independence, only one—the 2015 polls—escaped judicial contestation. This staggering statistic is not just a historical footnote; it is a damning indictment of a system that has steadily eroded public trust. If Nigerians are to reclaim democracy from the grip of elite manipulation, a radical overhaul of the electoral architecture is non-negotiable.
The current system – a captured electoral process – places the conduct of elections in the hands of officials appointed by politicians who are also contestants. This incestuous arrangement breeds conflict of interest, incentivises rigging, and entrenches a culture of impunity. Nigerians are not naïve; they know that the referee cannot be appointed by the players and still guarantee a fair game.
To restore integrity, we must decentralise the voting system and strip politicians of control over the process.
Here’s how:
Independent Administration by the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC)
Elections should be managed by officials of the NLC—a nationwide workers’ union with no formal ties to any political party. Unlike politically appointed bodies, the NLC represents ordinary Nigerians and is structurally insulated from partisan capture. This will inject neutrality and credibility into the process.
State-Level Announcement of Presidential Results
The current practice of transmitting results to Abuja creates a dangerous window for manipulation. Results should be collated and announced at the state level, eliminating the vulnerability of tampering during transit. Transparency begins with proximity.
Direct Result Dissemination to Voters
Every polling unit’s result should be sent directly to the mobile numbers of registered voters in that unit. This straightforward technological measure will democratise access to information, empower citizens to verify outcomes, and deprive electoral fraud of the oxygen of secrecy.
This matters because Nigeria’s elections are not merely administrative exercises; they are existential battles for the soul of the nation. When citizens lose faith in the ballot, they turn to bullets—or worse, apathy. A decentralised, transparent system is not a luxury; it is a lifeline for democracy.
This is not a time for timid reforms or cosmetic tweaks. It is a time for bold, structural change. Nigerians must demand an electoral system that serves the people, not the political class.
Anything less is an endorsement of the status quo—a status quo that has failed us for decades.
Dapel can be contacted on Twitter @dapelzg@dapelzg
